Schwarzenegger goes All-In

Betting he'll change Capitol culture

By Dan Walters, Sacramento Bee Columnist, March 2, 2005

All-In Turns In Chess in May

The climactic point of a no-limit poker tournament comes when just two players remain from hundreds of entrants and one of them goes "all in" by shoving his chips into the middle of the table. The other player wonders whether the bettor is really holding winning cards, or running a huge bluff, and with many thousands, or perhaps millions, of dollars in prize money at stake must decide whether to match the bet or fold his cards.

One rarely sees such moments in politics because politicians, by their nature, are risk-averse, unwilling to wager their careers on one issue. They either avoid confrontation altogether, or embrace face-saving compromise. Arnold Schwarzenegger, however, is not your average politician. With two highly successful careers behind him, a personal fortune and global fame, Schwarzenegger is in a unique position to put his political career on the line. He wants to win, of course; indeed, he possesses a powerful drive, even compulsion, to dominate any venue in which he involves himself.

But, if anything, that makes him even more willing to take risks that ordinary politicians would avoid.

Schwarzenegger indirectly alluded to both his drive to win, and his willingness to risk losing, Tuesday as he escalated his crusade to change the Capitol's political culture. March 1 was Schwarzenegger's deadline for the Legislature to act on four "year of reform" proposals he unveiled eight weeks ago, and as it passed without action, he launched the petition drive that probably will culminate in a special election next fall.

Asked by a reporter whether he was risking voter fatigue in taking to the campaign trail for the fourth time in less than 18 months, Schwarzenegger figuratively shrugged his massive shoulders and said that risk is inherent "when you try to do great things" and the willingness to take such risks "separates the boys from the men."

Is that political heroism or megalomania - or perhaps a bit of both? Whatever it may be, and whatever the outcome, California has never seen anything quite like it.

While not as bizarre as the 2003 recall of Gray Davis from the governorship and Schwarzenegger's election, the 2005 campaign is a more substantive event. "They (voters) sent me to Sacramento to reform the system, and that's what I'm doing," Schwarzenegger told reporters at the Capitol before driving a Humvee across town to a restaurant for some public campaigning.

The recall was a carnival, but did not change much of anything. And during the first months of his governorship, Schwarzenegger - notwithstanding his rhetoric - didn't try for much more than marginal change. But ever since last summer's confrontation with the Legislature's dominant Democrats over the budget, when he accused them of being "girlie men" for not standing up to their constituent groups - especially unions - Schwarzenegger has edged toward a showdown.

Not surprisingly, the Republican governor's four measures strike directly at public employee unions and not surprisingly, Democratic lawmakers have shunned them. He pretended to give them the chance to act and they pretended to consider action, but from the onset, everyone expected that it would morph into an initiative drive and a special election.

Now there's a new, less formal deadline, sometime in mid-or late April. That's when Schwarzenegger's political strategists hope to complete a whirlwind of signature-gathering on the four initiatives. Conceivably, the governor and the Democrats could still reach a deal on one or more of the measures by then, but once petitions are submitted in April, the die will be pretty much cast and the power struggle will play itself out.

Is this all a gigantic bluff - or to use an analogy from chess, Schwarzenegger's favorite game, a gambit, aimed at compelling Democrats into accepting something they otherwise would reject? Schwarzenegger used the threat of an initiative to get action on workers' compensation a year ago and alluded to that model Tuesday.

More likely, this drama will continue with initiatives, a special election and campaigns - centering on Schwarzenegger, pro and con - that will cost many tens of millions of dollars. And when it's over, Schwarzenegger will either have conquered another venue, or he'll be another Jesse Ventura. He's gone all-in.

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Last modified: March 2, 2005

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