Source:PPIC Survey

AS THE NATION GOES, SO GOES CALIFORNIA?

PARTISANSHIP RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE

Big Concern About State Budget, Little Consensus About Solutions

January 27, 2005

The bipartisan support that characterized Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s first year in office shows signs of cracking under the strain of a lingering budget crisis and renewed concern about the quality of public education, according to a new survey released by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) and The James Irvine Foundation.

While overall support for the governor remains high – 60 percent of Californians say they approve of his performance – the percentage of Democrats and independents who disapprove of the job he is doing has grown substantially from one year ago. Democrats are now more likely to disapprove (49%) than approve (43%) of the governor’s job performance, a marked shift from one year ago (46% approve, 27% disapprove). While six in 10 independents still give the governor positive marks overall – the same as a year ago – his disapproval ratings among this group have nearly doubled (from 18% to 32%).

When it comes to the three major issues that Californians want the state’s elected officials to tackle this year, support for the governor proves more elusive. Education (22%) has resurfaced as the top policy concern among Californians (up from 15% one year ago), followed by the state budget (20%), and the economy and jobs (15%). Currently, a majority of state residents disapprove of Governor Schwarzenegger’s performance with regard to schools (34% approve, 51% disapprove). And while a majority (56%) support his handling of economic issues, his approval ratings in handling the state budget have declined in the past year, falling from 54 percent to 48 percent. Driving the disappointing numbers on education and the state budget is a sharp partisan split: While Republicans remain supportive of the governor’s policies, Democrats and independents are far less charitable. Seventy-two percent of Democrats and 54 percent of independents disapprove of his handling of education issues.

“Californians like Governor Schwarzenegger, but they no longer view him as being above the political fray,” says PPIC Statewide Survey Director Mark Baldassare. “This is problematic because politics-asusual is not an option for the governor – his plan to take a bold reform agenda to the people this year still requires broad bipartisan support.”

In Us We Trust: Californians Want to Set Budget Priorities

While education has claimed top billing, state budget issues weigh heavily on weary state residents. As in January 2004, the vast majority of Californians (70%) – and 76 percent of likely voters – view the multibillion dollar gap between revenues and spending as a big problem. Now, however, they do not endorse the governor’s budget: 38 percent of residents say they are satisfied and 55 percent say they are unsatisfied with his proposal. Last year, 57 percent were satisfied and 30 percent were unsatisfied with Schwarzenegger’s plan.

Who do Californians want to make the tough choices involved in the current state budget? Thirty-five percent favor Democrats in the legislature, 29 percent prefer Governor Schwarzenegger, and 18 percent prefer Republicans in the legislature. A year ago, the governor was preferred over Democrats in the legislature by 33 percent to 27 percent. The increased support for the legislature on this dimension is notable, given that their dismal approval ratings (37%) remain virtually unchanged from one year ago. Ultimately, state residents trust themselves to make the call: 68 percent believe voters should make decisions about the budget process rather than abdicate that responsibility to the governor and legislature (27%).

Taxes or Spending Cuts? Yes, But

The governor’s proposed budget included a variety of spending reductions but no new taxes. Where does the public stand? Forty percent favor a mixture of spending cuts and tax increases, 34 percent favor mostly spending cuts, and only 11 percent prefer mostly tax increases. Although 45 percent of Californians oppose new taxes, 49 percent think tax increases should have been included in the budget plan – a seven-point increase over a year ago that reflects growing support for taxes among Democrats and independents. So who should pay to help get the state out of its current financial hole? Someone else. As in past PPIC surveys, a majority of Californians support raising the tax rate on the state’s top income bracket (69% favor, 28% oppose) and increasing cigarette and alcohol taxes (74% favor, 25% oppose). However, they steadfastly oppose increasing the state portion of the sales tax (64% oppose, 32% favor).

Residents are also not willing to bite the bullet when it comes to cuts in spending. Most Californians (73%) express concern about the effects of budget cuts in the governor’s plan. And most are also opposed to spending cuts in the major programs that dominate the state budget. Rather than cutting program funding, majorities support spending more or the same amount on K-12 education (62% more, 27% same amount), health and human services (47% more, 33% same amount), and colleges and universities (44% more, 37% same amount). Support for spending cuts (46%) is apparent in only one area — prisons and corrections.

April, 2005 Press Release

By a wide margin, K-12 education ranks as a top state budget priority for Californians, with seven in 10 (72%) giving it a high priority in light of the state’s multibillion dollar budget gap. When Californians are asked which of the four major spending categories they most want to protect from budget cuts, K-12 public education receives the greatest support (54%), distantly followed by health and human services (22%), higher education (12%), and corrections (7%). Half of residents (51%) – and 59 percent of public school parents – say their local public schools do not receive enough state funding.

Despite their concerns about funding for education, residents are unwilling to consider raising taxes to provide additional dollars for schools – unless someone else is paying. While large majorities – including majorities of likely voters – oppose raising the state sales tax (70%) or extending it to include services (60%) for this purpose, they do favor raising the income tax for the wealthiest Californians (63%) and assessing commercial properties according to their current market value (54%). At the local level, majorities say they would support a bond measure to fund school construction projects (71%) but would oppose a measure to increase property taxes to provide revenue for schools (51%).

Why the unwillingness to ante up? Most residents (59%) believe the quality of the state’s public education system can be improved by wiser use of current resources, rather than additional funding. One driver of the distrust residents express about how current resources are allocated? They don’t like who’s calling the shots. At the state level, Californians say they prefer to see Democrats in the legislature (38%), rather than Governor Schwarzenegger (24%) or GOP legislators (15%), making the tough calls on education spending. However, when asked whom they trust the most to make spending decisions for schools, only 12 percent of residents name state government. Instead, two in three residents believe principals and teachers at local schools (37%) or local school districts (31%) should make decisions about school fiscal policies. Ultimately, Californians themselves want to be the decisionmakers: 66 percent of residents say voters, not the governor and legislature (21%), should decide at the ballot box about major, long-term changes in the K-12 system.

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Last modified: February 2, 2005

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